"It ain't over till it's over."  Those words, from one of this country's best-known philosophers, Yogi Berra, former catcher for the New York Yankees baseball team, are appropriate for these last days before the presidential election.

Martin Zehr, Kansas City, Missouri, USA, November 3, 2008

   Still, there are distinct, strong and pervasive indications that American voters are in a mood for a change in the political fabric as transformational as the 1932 election of Franklin Roosevelt which began the long liberal tradition of the Democratic Party or the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, which marked a revival of conservative influence after a half-century of progressive social legislation.  While the outcome is not yet certain, all indications point to an Obama victory, with the still-open question of the size of his winning margin and the results of congressional contests, where Democrats are favored to increase the majority they have enjoyed for two years.

    The polls for the presidential contest have not changed appreciably during the last week, despite the claims of the McCain campaign of a "tightening" of the numbers and a swing of momentum in its favor.  Current estimates indicate that the contest is not as close as either the 2000 or 2004 elections and that Barack Obama may win in a number of traditional Republican states, including Missouri, where Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, have spent a lot of time and money. 

Last evening Obama appeared at a rally in the small town of Springfield, Missouri, where he attracted an audience of 35,000, a huge showing, especially in a region of this state known for its political and cultural conservatism.  Since Missouri only has 11 electoral votes (270 are required to win the presidency), it is nothing less than remarkable that the Obama campaign has decided to spend time and energy in this, as well as other usually reliable Republican states, so late in the process.  This is strong evidence of the confidence of the Obama campaign organization, based on the observation that citizens are more discouraged and upset with the status quo than at any time in this country's recent history. 

Indeed, Obama is a beneficiary of this deep dissatisfaction, so pervasive that, remarkably, the issue of race may be, as we will soon find out, one with little impact.  In times like the present, with 750,000 lost jobs during the year and a shrinking economy,  skin color loses a lot of its prejudicial power, and green (the color of money in the U.S.) is the color that arouses the intense focus of the average citizen.  Just as Roosevelt was elected in 1932, based on the hopes of Americans that he could restore hopes of men and women suffering in the depths of the Great Depression, Obama has inspired hope that he can do something similar in our present circumstances.  John McCain, on the other hand, is the beneficiary of the widespread belief that his association with the party and person of George Bush means little chance for a significant change in this country's political leadership.  Poll numbers which show that Bush is the most unpopular president since the advent of systematic polling have prompted McCain to attempt to distance himself from the current administration, but, thanks to the constant reminders of the Obama campaign, he has not been successful in these efforts.  The mood of the country is exhaustion and loss of patience with the Bush years and, on the other hand, a palpable hope that Obama, an individual who was virtually unknown to most Americans four years ago, can lead us out of this country's economic wilderness and perhaps restore some of its lost international reputation.   

The candidates themselves, of course, have had a significant impact on their respective fortunes beyond our current domestic and international circumstances.  McCain is often viewed as someone who has been around too long and offers nothing we haven't seen before from the Republican party leaders.  His wartime heroism is a story we have heard repeatedly throughout this campaign,  but in a country whose citizens are intensely focused on the present, his personal history has not swayed a majority of voters.  His judgment, moreover, has come into question to a significant degree following his selection of Sarah Palin for vice president, a decision which has provoked criticism from independent voters and resulted in an additional dimension to the career of the comedian Tina Fey.  Obama's choice of Joe Biden has been generally viewed as serious and thoughtful, and few observers seriously question Biden's foreign policy experience and wisdom.  Obama himself, moreover, in the seventeen months during which he has campaigned for the nomination and the general election, has shown himself, despite the long odds that initially confronted him, to be a patient, determined, calm and steady individual, with an energy, intelligence and ability to articulate the hopes of the American middle class that has largely erased lingering concerns about his lack of national political experience.  He has made few significant mistakes during the course of this campaign, and, as these words are being written, he is out on the campaign trail working and exhorting voters against overconfidence, while McCain, from his position as likely loser, is attempting to convince his audiences that he is on the verge of pulling off an election miracle on a scale with Truman's come-from-behind victory in 1948.

    The electorate itself has undergone changes during the last couple of election cycles, and current observations indicate that these changes will be felt when the votes are finally counted.  For one thing, the portion of the voting population between the ages of 18-24 has grown significantly, and indications are that this demographic will actually show up and cast their votes tomorrow.  These younger voters, regardless of race, generally have little knowledge of the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and 60s in this country, but it is also true that this group is generally less concerned with questions of race than its predecessors, who grew up in a more segregated environment.  They are more capable of putting questions of race aside and focusing their attention on other domestic policy matters, and it is not surprising that Obama campaign offices are staffed with a large proportion of dedicated younger voters.

    The importance of this election cannot be understated, and all the evidence of the last year underscores the conclusion that Americans generally view this as a critical event in their personal histories.  Current estimates are that 125 million citizens will vote, 15 million more than in 2004.  Also a notable phenomena this year is the availability of early voting in a large number of states (Missouri is not one of them).  People have been taking advantage of early voting opportunities across the country in record numbers, with reports of long lines, with voters waiting for hours, quite commonplace.  This phenomena is proof of the strong determination of voters this year to have their voices heard,  no matter what degree of temporary discomfort must be endured.  Some of this motivation, of course, is due to lingering memories of the 2000 election and its disastrous results for the country. Approximately one-third of citizens have cast their votes at the time of this writing, before the official election day, and current polling indicates that Obama is the choice of the large majority of these early voters. 

It is also notable that these long voter lines have appeared in such states as Georgia and South Carolina, usually safe Republican states, as well as Ohio, the state that made the difference in the 2004 contest. The enthusiasm and determination of Obama supporters, of course, is also due to the realization, as votes are being cast and counted, that this election is history in the making for this country.  If not for the particular economic and international circumstances of the United States, it might be reasonable to assume that someone with Obama's ethnic and racial heritage could not be elected in our lifetimes, but, regardless of the reasons, we are on the brink of a new political reality in this country, crossing a barrier far greater than the anti-Catholic sentiment that confronted John Kennedy in 1960.

    Some states, like New York and California, are consistent in their preference for Democratic candidates, while some, like Texas and other southern states, are just as predictably Republican in their voting histories.  It is notable that, during the last few weeks, both candidates have been expending their energies campaigning in states usually considered safe for Republicans, including Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Indiana.  Also atypical is the fact that the Democratic candidate has the advantage in funds, such that time can be devoted to campaigning in Republican territory.  The money advantage, however, has to be viewed as a direct result of the general dissatisfaction with the state of the country and the personal attraction of Obama, as well as the very impressive organizing ability of Obama supporters.  Much of Obama's financial support comes from large numbers of individuals giving small contributions,  and the Obama organization has shown itself to be much more adept at using the internet, texting and e-mail to its advantage.  It is also notable that the Obama organization, and its candidate, responds quickly and directly to Republican charges, an ability that many believe was lacking in the John Kerry campaign four years ago, likely costing him the election. 

    There is still, it should be noted, the possibility of a McCain victory, a result which would be quite disheartening for a large proportion of citizens, but, at this writing, it is difficult to actually believe that we will be referring to president-elect McCain in two days.  On the other hand, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, it is sometimes difficult to believe that we could be referring to  our president, Barack Obama, after inauguration day next January.  At this moment, all that can be said with absolute certainty is that we will not be under the leadership of President Bush, but that, of course, is a lot for most of us who have suffered, in and out of this country, during the last eight years of Bush-Cheney incompetence.  It is perhaps the current level of aversion to the Bush regime that has made the ascendancy of Barack Obama possible, an observation which, if true, might serve as a form of perverse justification for the last eight years, especially if the electorate's judgment regarding the thoughtfulness and intelligence of Obama turns out to be justified. 

    If the noise level in the dark of night on Wednesday morning seems a bit loud to European readers, don't be concerned, it is just the cheering of Americans awakening from our long national nightmare and celebrating the beginning of a new political and cultural era.  Of course, the state of this country will not improve to any significant degree overnight if Obama prevails, but this country will, without question, be heading in another direction, one which certainly has to be an improvement.

    Missouri's nickname is the "Show-Me-State," and even this writer will not be convinced until the votes are cast and counted and the results are announced.  Nonetheless, the audacity of hope is alive and well.

    Next week I'll write one last campaign-related piece, summarizing the results and likely impact of Tuesday's elections here.