By Martin Zehr, Kansas City, Missouri, USA
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

            It's late in the game, with two weeks left until election day, and movement has been slight since my last transmission.  Following the completion of the three presidential-level debates, only small fluctuations in movement in the polls can be detected.  Still, some observations are worth noting.

           Again, in Missouri, we have continued to attract the attention of both candidates, a circumstance which is especially noteworthy when you consider that this region of the country is dependably conservative and Republican- usually.  Last weekend Obama visited St. Louis, our "eastern" city, attracting 100,000 to his rally, followed by a visit to Kansas City, the "western" city in this state, where a crowd of 75,000 gathered to hear him, the largest audience for a politician here since 1926, when President Calvin Coolidge stopped by for the dedication to a memorial for the soldiers of the First World War.  McCain followed Obama, visiting a suburb of Kansas City and speaking in front of a crowd estimated at 6,000.  Latest polls here indicate a very slim lead for Obama, but the imponderables, here as elsewhere in this country, are likely to have a significant impact on the final outcome.  First, the increase in registered voters, a phenomena so pronounced that election watchers are openly worried about the capacity of the voting apparatus to handle the anticipated long lines on November 4^th.  Most pundits consider this development as favorable to Obama, under the presumption that these prospective voters are largely members of classes and segments of society generally underrepresented in American elections.  Secondly, the derivative question, how many younger voters will show up?  This is a demographic segment that traditionally has been predicted to make a real difference, and, just as traditionally, often disappoints in the size of its turnout.  In Kansas City, I note that the Obama headquarters office is staffed by a disproportionately large contingent of younger workers, who always seem to be very busy, and this may be the year in which the pundits finally prove to be correct in this regard.  If so, conventional wisdom says an increase in younger voters would benefit Obama.  Finally, there is always the possibility of an event, here or outside the country, which could tip the scales to one candidate.  Obama, certainly, has derived significant benefit from our current economic woes and, to the extent that the average middle-class voter believes that these will continue, and affect their lives in the next few years, Obama will likely hold an advantage overall.  On the other hand, should a major world event occur in the next few weeks which can be interpreted as a threat to our "national security," the assumption is that McCain will reap the benefit on election day.  Already, ads placed by the Republican National Committee are attacking Obama for his purported lack of preparation for handling a major world crisis, an obvious attempt to divert attention from our domestic woes.  It is not clear, however, that McCain's age, or the fact that he has been a member of Congress for many more years than his opponent, are sufficient proof that he is any better equipped for dealing with any impending crisis.  Those of us of a certain age can recall the criticism of a lack of experience and preparedness being leveled against John F. Kennedy, and the proof of subsequent events that he was, indeed, able to deal with successive Cold War era crises with a strong and measured hand.  Still, this appears to be the strongest card in the McCain deck at this time, and you can certainly bet that we'll be bombarded with this message by the Republicans from now until election morning.

            As I write this, Obama has announced that he is taking a few days off to see his ailing grandmother in Hawaii, reportedly suffering from a broken hip.  At such a critical time in the election cycle, this decision says a lot about the man Obama and his priorities.  He has often referred to his grandmother, who often acted as a substitute parent and steadfast supporter, as one of the primary inspirations in his personal history, encouraging and enabling him, by her own sacrifice, to go much farther in life than might otherwise have been possible.  Obama is sometimes portrayed as being too cool and aloof, but this single act certainly serves as blatant contradiction to any such notion of the man.  I suspect that the time off, even under the present circumstances, will not have a noticeable negative effect on his campaign, which is otherwise very well organized and being served by noticeable surrogates, including Hillary Clinton, whose actions on behalf of her erstwhile adversary say a lot about this woman and her priorities. 

            Sarah Palin is becoming more of a sometimes entertaining sideshow than a serious advocate of McCain's positions at this juncture in the campaign.  The initial enthusiasm following her selection has long since subsided, now largely replaced with curiosity and criticism.  Much of the latter is coming from prominent conservatives in the Republican ranks, who have quickly come to the conclusion, along with the rest of us, that it is  painfully obvious she is not qualified for any significant responsibility in the federal government.  She no longer gives anything resembling an interview, and her stint last weekend, on the comedy program, Saturday Night Live, perhaps proved that she can take a joke, but did nothing to convince anybody of any other laudable qualities relevant to high political office.  Even the thought of her in the White House is frightening, to say the least, and it is not an exaggeration to state that she is less qualified for the office than the present occupant, a statement I realize may seem incredible to some readers.  We'll never know, of course, but I'll bet that even McCain regrets his choice now, seeing how little it has helped his campaign.  Thus, a vote for Obama is a vote for Palin's return to Alaska and moose-skinning, an outcome that can't occur fast enough for most of us.

            Overall, the race is still close, and the outcome uncertain, but certainly, given the choice, most watchers would rather be in Obama's position at this moment.  McCain has lately been forced to campaign in a number of "battleground" states, like Missouri, which are usually reliable Republican strongholds. If the election were held today, Obama would certainly be the President-elect,  but there is enough unpredictability in events to support Obama's own warning to his supporters against overconfidence.  Still, even considering the possible impact of the race factor, always present if not discussed, Barack Obama has been a steady, unflappable, and confidence-building candidate in this confidence-needing country.  If he is elected, of course, the myriad crises facing this country will not magically disappear, but this man's obvious intelligence and level-headed demeanor support the conclusion that he can at least stop the bleeding in our fortunes and America's image in the world.

            I'll be back, once more, just before the election and, once more, I assure you, you will get your money's worth.

Have a nice day.